Beyond Two Choices
π° What if the rat has more than two doors? Two names to know: categorical (one pick among many) and multinomial (counts across many picks).
Bernoulli and binomial only allow two outcomes. Put the rat in an n-armed maze and each arm i gets its own probability pα΅’. A single choice among them is a draw from a categorical distribution β just a weighted die. As always, the probabilities have to account for everything, so they sum to 1:
Ξ£α΅’ pα΅’ = 1
All the arm-probabilities add up to 1 β the rat definitely picks *some* arm.
Repeat that pick many times and tally how often each arm was chosen β that tally follows the multinomial distribution. The clean way to remember the whole family:
β’ Bernoulli β one flip, 2 outcomes
β’ Binomial β many flips, 2 outcomes, count them
β’ Categorical β one pick, many outcomes
β’ Multinomial β many picks, many outcomes, count them
π§ Callback ahead: the categorical distribution is the engine of Markov chains β "given where I am now, here are the probabilities of where I go next." You'll build those in the next tutorial.