+10 XP

Beyond Two Choices

🎰 What if the rat has more than two doors? Two names to know: categorical (one pick among many) and multinomial (counts across many picks).

Bernoulli and binomial only allow two outcomes. Put the rat in an n-armed maze and each arm i gets its own probability pα΅’. A single choice among them is a draw from a categorical distribution β€” just a weighted die. As always, the probabilities have to account for everything, so they sum to 1:

Ξ£α΅’ pα΅’ = 1

All the arm-probabilities add up to 1 β€” the rat definitely picks *some* arm.

Repeat that pick many times and tally how often each arm was chosen β€” that tally follows the multinomial distribution. The clean way to remember the whole family:

β€’ Bernoulli β†’ one flip, 2 outcomes
β€’ Binomial β†’ many flips, 2 outcomes, count them
β€’ Categorical β†’ one pick, many outcomes
β€’ Multinomial β†’ many picks, many outcomes, count them

🧠 Callback ahead: the categorical distribution is the engine of Markov chains β€” "given where I am now, here are the probabilities of where I go next." You'll build those in the next tutorial.